Application of experimental design and response surface methods for field production forecast

Abstract

Production forecast is an essential part of the oil and gas industry. It is not only the important part of any economic evaluation but also planning operation schedule in order to sustain production to rate meet business target. However, there are many factors are able to effect the hydrocarbons rate which are produced from wells and fields. And these factors can vary widely. Hence, production rates will also vary widely. Therefore, a production forecast must be based upon an understanding of these factors. Experimental design method is an alternative to traditional sensitivity analysis. The basic idea behind this methodology is to vary multiple parameters at the same time such that the maximum information can be obtained at the minimum process. This thesis developed gas production forecast technique using application of experimental design and response surface methods by representing the integrated production modeling simulation with a surrogate model. Screening process was done to identify the high effect parameters. Surrogate model for gas production forecast was developed. From the result it shows that model has high accuracy in production estimation.