Area risk Assessment of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in poultry in Ayeyarwaddy delta region, Myanmar

Abstract

This study was aimed to identify the risk factors in duck farms and to conduct an area risk assessment of HPAI in Phyarpon township, Ayeyarwaddy delta region, Myanmar. Determination of risk factors for HPAI was conducted by questionnaire interviews with 50 duck farmers in Phyarpon and four surrounding townships. Results from the interviews and HPAI serological status in flock were used for determination of risk factors using univariable analysis and multivariable logistic regression. Area risk assessment was conducted by evaluating poultry supply chain, relevant institutional and epidemiological review of AI in Phyarpon. According to the poultry supply chain study in Phyarpon, focus-group discussion was conducted by interviewing 85 respondents. Our results showed that the significant risk factors for being HPAI seropositivity in ducks were using wooden box-egg containers (Odds ratio [OR] 52.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.34-1.188x10³, P=0.013) and using source of water from wetland (OR=30.74, 95% CI=1.96-481.64, P=0.015), while in reuse egg containers after cleaning was associated as protective factor (OR=0.03, 95% CI=0.00-0.42, P=0.01). Risk assessment of HPAI in Phyarpon including release, exposure and consequence assessment were qualitatively estimated. The results showed that overall risk estimation of HPAI for ducks and backyard chickens were moderate with low uncertainty. Based on the information of this study, risk management should be focused on the raising of backyard chickens and ducks to prevent or reduce risk of HPAI spread and infection in Phyarpon township.