Instabibity and export performance of Thai selected agricultural products

Abstract

This thesis was about export growth, quantity of exports, market expansion and competitiveness of two principal agricultural products of Thailand, namely, rice and rubber, during the period 1986 to 1995. Also, the study included the relationship between export instability and export competitiveness. The study used the Constant Market Share Model (CMS) to assess the export performance and measured the export instability indexes using the concept of deviation from the exponential least squares trend line. Dividing the study period into two sub-periods, i.e. 1986-1990 and 1991-1995, it was found that, the export performance, for both rice and rubber, were higher. The Thai rice and rubber exports, in general, were still depending on traditional markets which expanded at a low rate, while the competitiveness of Thai rice and rubber exports declined. Even that there was a similarity between rice and rubber export growth during these two periods, the export instability indexes indicated some differences, i.e. with some degree of export instability, the rice exports became more stable in the later period (1991-1995), while rubber exports became less stable. The rice market became more stable with export expansion and small growth in principal markets as well as smaller degree of competitiveness, in comparison with other competitors such as United States and Vietnam. It was found that the demand factor was a dominant determining factor during the first period while the supply factor was a dominant during the second period. The Thai rice exports was becoming more stable with changes in determining factor, the reason for instability was mainly from the supply side. In the case of rubber exports, the instability of exports became higher in the second period. When we consider instability with the export performance, it was found that the instability originated from both demand and supply sides. Therefore, we concluded that Thailand was still having some competitiveness and instability problem even with the fact that she was the largest supplier in the world market.