Determinants of foreign direct investment and its effects on trade and economic growth in Vietnam

Abstract

Vietnam's phenomenal economic development has coincided with a substantial increase in FDI inflows and hence led researchers, including the author, to believe that increased inflows of FDI into Vietnam have had important implications for the country's trade and economic expansion over the past decades. This dissertation investigates factors determining foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the effects of FDI inflows on economic growth and trade in Vietnam and its different regions over the 1993-2006 period. The study reveals that wages, income per capita, GDP growth and accumulated FDI stock as well as openness to trade and special economic zones are important factors attracting FDI inflows into Vietnam. Human capital has not yet been a significant factor determining FDI inflows because FDI activities in Vietnam are mainly in labor-intensive industries in which a large number of skilled labor is not yet required. The existing physical infrastructure in Vietnam does not help attract FDI inflows either and this implies that an improvement in its quality is needed. Economic growth and FDI in Vietnam have a positively significant relationship. The beneficial effect on growth of FDI comes from stock of foreign capital that has been accumulated over the years. At the regional level, higher capital flow of foreign direct investmentis a major factor stimulating economic growth in the Northern region. The flow of superior technologies transferring from FDI firms can also help to increase the growth rate of the Central region by interacting with the region's open trade regime. The contribution of FDI to economic growth in the Southeastern region is explained by both foreign capital accumulation and new technologies and knowledge transferred from FDI enterprises through human capital. In all regions, inward FDI has a complementary relationship with Vietnam's exports, imports and total trade, implying that the FDIs are mostly of the vertical type. However, the patterns of the FDI-trade relationships between Vietnam and different partner countries show variations. To attract more FDI inflow into Vietnam and sustain the economic development, Vietnam has to improve the country's income per capita, GDP growth rate and trade openness. The Vietnamese government needs to pay more attention to improved quality of human capital, physical infrastructure as well as putting effect to enhance the investment environment in order to attract FDI inflows into a more tecnology-intensive line of production in the future.