Forecasting cane sugar production under climate change and human-ecotoxicological impact

Abstract

This study forecasted sugar cane yield and cane sugar production using stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Then, impacts on human health and ecosystems at the endpoint level were evaluated using openLCA software version 1.10.3 and the ReCiPe 2016 method. The functional units were the production of 1 kg raw sugar, 1 kg granulated sugar, and 1 kg refined sugar at Tamaka Sugar Industry Co., Ltd., Kanchanaburi province, Thailand. The result revealed that relative humidity at the Thong Pha Phum meteorological station, maximum temperature at the Kanchanaburi meteorological station, and oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant variables influencing sugarcane yield. The forecasting models indicated that annual sugarcane yields during crop years 2020/21 to 2024/25 fluctuated from 1,978,907 to 2,091,432 tons. When these sugar cane yields were processed to produce raw sugar, granulated sugar, and refined sugar, at the endpoint level, the harms to human health were estimated at 21.13–22.33 DALY, 221.56–234.15 DALY, and 300.32–317.40 DALY, respectively. The damages to ecosystems were approximated at 0.056–0.059 Species.yr, 0.583–0.617 Species.yr, and 0.791–0.836 Species.yr respectively. The outstanding contributions to human health impacts were fine particulate matter formation, global warming, and carcinogenic toxicity, whereas the prominent contributions to ecological impacts were acidification, global warming, and ozone formation. These findings offer valuable insights to relevant agencies, enabling them to enhance production efficiency and develop strategies to minimize the impact on both human health and ecosystems.