Abstract:
This thesis proposes a mathematical model that imitates the flow of containers in the container liner shipping network — particularly, in the Indo-Pacific region, where the Strait of Malacca is located — in order to assess the potential impact of the proposed Thai Canal on such a network. This model is constructed based on a combination of two network problems, namely (i) the Multi-commodity Minimum Cost Network Flow Problem (MCNFP) and (ii) the Liner Shipping Fleet Deployment Problem (LSFDP), which allows a more realistic representation of international trade, while taking to account congestion at container ports at the same time. We validate the resulting mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP) using information of the container liner shipping network in 2015, assuming that liners provide their services based solely on the costs. Based on our computational results, the resulting container flows from the proposed model seem to well align with the actual data at the country level — but with some differences at the port level, due to the posed assumption. Once validated, the model is then applied to a network configuration where the Thai Canal serves as an alternative route to the Strait of Malacca. We explore two distinct scenarios: in the first, the Thai Canal reduces transit time by 2 days; in the second, we consider a scenario where the Thai Canal does not offer any transit time savings. Our experimental results indicate that, under both scenarios, the Thai Canal could instigate a substantial shift in traffic volume from the Strait of Malacca — leading to a significant decrease in port calls and transshipment operations of ports around the Strait of Malacca, particularly the port of Singapore.
