Russian motives in cyberattacks: case studies of Estonia and Ukraine

Abstract

The purpose of this independent study is to examine Russian motivations for the 2007 cyberattacks on Estonia's critical information infrastructure and the 2015 Ukraine power grid breach. It also analyzes the aftermath and consequences of the attacks, as well as efforts to address the issues.

The study found that Russia's primary purpose in cyberattacks is most likely to survive the anarchy of the international system, in which states can never trust each other and must rely on themselves. The acts of Estonia and Ukraine, as well as NATO's ambitions to expand, intervene, and achieve dominance in Russia's sphere of influence, would be the most dangerous to its survival. As a result, Russia retaliated in a number of ways to restrict NATO expansion, limit Western influence over neighbouring countries, and reestablish regional dominance in order to assure its survival.

For these reasons, cyberattacks have been utilized as one of the instruments since they allow for a more convenient and cost-effective course of action, particularly the use of network warfare and cyber espionage against critical infrastructure in the early stages of modern warfighting strategies, which provides awareness of a prospective enemy's intentions, capabilities, and behaviour. They can also disrupt, disable, or destroy an opponent's computer systems or networks and steal or manipulate sensitive data, shattering the traditional foundation of conflict by allowing states to avoid ethical violations and legal obligations that would be punished under conventional rules of engagement. Because cyberattacks have no geographical boundaries, low costs, and unique domains beyond the reach of conventional norms such as the Geneva Convention, Russia has therefore launched a series of cyberattacks as well as propagated pro-Russian and anti-Western misinformation.