How influential are FinFluencers? granger causality between finance influencers and price movements in cryptocurrency and stock markets

Abstract

This research investigates the influence of finance influencers on stock and cryptocurrency returns by analyzing the relationship between their asset-related YouTube videos and market movements. The study was conducted in two parts: the VAR Granger causality analysis in both the cryptocurrency and stock markets, and the analysis of the behavior of the top finance influencers in the cryptocurrency market. The findings from the VAR Granger causality analysis revealed distinct patterns between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. In the cryptocurrency market, YouTube videos, particularly the number of videos published, showed a significant Granger causality effect on returns. However, the causality from returns to YouTube videos was less prominent. Conversely, in the stock market, the relationship between YouTube videos and returns was weak or non-existent. The influence of finance influencer content on stock returns appeared to be less significant compared to the cryptocurrency market. Moreover, the study analyzes the behavior of top finance influencers in the cryptocurrency market, demonstrating that their impact on returns is not as significant as previously observed in the overall market. The overall market dynamics and the presence of videos related to cryptocurrencies play a more substantial role in influencing returns. Overall, these findings indicate that while top finance influencers may attract a large number of views, their influence on price movements in cryptocurrencies is not substantial. The presence of videos related to cryptocurrencies, regardless of the creator, has a significant pronounced impact on cryptocurrency returns.