Impact of load uncertainty on generation system reliability

Abstract

To focus on the determination of generation capacity based on a predefined risk criterion. The predefined criteria, based on deterministic and probabilistic methods, is set to ensure continuous and adequate power supply for long-term generation expansion planning. Since the required generation capacity highly depends on the future forecasted demand, the thesis considers the impact of various load uncertainty types, i.e. normal, under, and over forecasted models. In this thesis the results from basic percentage reserve criteria and probabilistic indices, e.g. Loss of Load Expectation etc., are compared. A long-range generation expansion planning program has been developed and tested with the IEEE-RTS system. Then it is used to simulate several scenarios for practical test systems, i.e. Myanmar and Thailand generation systems, from which suggestion on reserve criteria is proposed