Development of a computer program for oil reserve calculation using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Uncertainty of oil reserve calculated by volumetric method can be obtained by using Monte Carlo Simulation. This uncertainty is due to uncertainty of input variables. The computer program developed in this study can be used to calculate oil reserve and assess its uncertainty. Statistical relationship between two input variables and spatial correlation of an input variable are incorporated in the developed program so that it can be used effectively when the input variables have these statistical properties. Using the developed program, it is realized that probability distributions of input variables used must be corresponding to the size of block utilized in the calculation. Wrong probability distributions of input variables would lead to wrong values of oil reserve and wrong magnitude of its uncertainty. In addition, both statistical relationship between two input variables and spatial correlation of an input variable have effects on the calculated oil reserve, and its uncertainty. Example of application of the developed program is also presented.