Contributing factors in aircraft accidents triggering fatalities

Abstract

Air transport has always been considered the safest way to travel. It has contributed numerous economic and social benefits, for instance, connecting multimodal modes of transportation, increasing employment, driving global and local economic activities, reducing travel time and generating trade, tourism, and services, connecting people and countries, and supporting humanitarian activities in a remote rural area. Historical records on the fatality ratio suggested that air transportation has the highest likelihood of accidents (occurrences with fatalities) when compared to all other transportation modes, including highway, railroad, and water. Then, when an accident occurs, it largely affects various stakeholders. This study aims to re-analyze the worldwide aircraft accidents from 2014 to 2017, by (1) identifying the contributing factors that trigger accidents (occurrences with fatalities) and (2) providing the countermeasures accounting for all high-risk accidents and significant contributing factors, for the mitigation/prevention of the future occurrences. A mixed method of quantitative and qualitative approaches was conducted. Ten aviation safety experts were recruited for an interview. Worldwide commercial aircraft accidents were collected from accident databases, final investigation reports, and various aviation communities. Factors derived from the expert interview and the precedent aircraft accidents were analyzed by adopting binary, censored, and ordered logistic regressions. Results revealed that time of day, aircraft size, and the effective implementation of State of occurrence has an impact on accidents. The predicted model suggested that flights during 00:00-05:59, operating on a small-sized aircraft with an MTOW of 5,701-27,000 kg, and flying on the route to/from/over a State of occurrence with a low effective implementation signify the likelihood of an accident occurring. Remarkably, the effective implementation of the State of occurrence was discovered that it has an impact on the number of fatalities, and the level of aircraft damage. As a result, it is the key to mitigating and preventing future mishaps. Considering the improvement of the State of occurrence effective implementation, countermeasures were proposed and classified into 7 dimensions: State legislation, regulations, guidance, and plan; safety management, oversight, and audit; State certification, authorization, and approval; infrastructure and equipment; protocols and procedures; operation and services; and qualification, competency, training of personnel. Ultimately, advancing the State’s safety oversight system will lead to the mitigation and prevention of future accidents.