Investigation of statistical seismology in Thailand-Laos-Myanmar borders

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to understand more about the statistical seismology of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border in order to monitor earthquake activity and locate potentially dangerous area. The seismicity data was collected from the Thailand Meteorological Department. Following that, the catalog's homogeneity and completeness were improved. The first step is to identify the earthquake activity by using the adaptive frequency-magnitude distribution. The results are that Nan province, Thailand, and south Luang Prabang, Laos are the highest activity areas which can generate a maximum magnitude of 5.1 ML, 5.6 ML, 6.3 ML, and 6.7 ML in 5, 10, 30, 50 years. The return period with the ML of 4.0, 5.0, 6.0, and 7.0 was 1, 5, 20, and 75 years. The probability of the occurrence of the earthquake with the ML of 4.0, 5.0, 6.0, and 7.0 was 100%, 100%, 70-100%, and 20-60%, respectively. Then, identify the prospective area using three methods: b value, Z value , and RTL algorithm. After performing iterative tests on three methods with the appropriate parameterd, reasonable estimates of the anomalous precursors. Overlaying maps of those three methodologies makes it possible to identify prospective places for a coming major earthquake. The Thailand-Myanmar border region, Nan province, Thailand, and southwest of Luang Prabang, Laos are the most risk areas for the earthquake in the future.