The impact of public debt on economic growth: evidence from Thailand

Abstract

This study investigates how public debt affects Thailand’s economic growth, covering 2005 to 2019. The model runs through 3 macroeconomic indicators; namely, Public debt, Personal Income Tax, and Real Gross Domestic Product, which represent economic growth. All of them are examined by Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality approach. The evidence shows that public debt and income tax are related to Thailand’s growth in different directions; the former is favorable while the latter is negative at a 5% significance level. Likewise, the speed of adjustment is at 15%. The paper suggests that the government can run up the national debt, however, they should confirm transparency of objectives and the process, maintain their fiscal discipline, and monitor it to the proper Debt-to-GDP ratio.